Based on the above-average long rains forecast, planned desert locust control operations, and high likelihood that better-off households will seek to maximize crop production prospects during a favorable rainfall season, area planted for the unimodal and bimodal long rains seasons is expected to be above average. Households that are currently in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to the impact of the floods are expected to regain access to labor income or gifts in the context of more widespread community recovery, but given low to no livestock holdings, these households will likely continue to experience food consumption gaps through the lean season and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Although FEWS NET cross-border monitoring data indicate that maize imports into Kenya during the fourth quarter of 2019 accounted for 12 percent of total regional imports, imports have not filled the national cereal gap. However, the bimodal long rains harvest in July/August is most likely to be near average due to the likelihood of crop losses in marginal agricultural areas from desert locust. Due to anticipated above-average labor demand, income earned from land preparation activities for the long rains cropping season is most likely to normalize food access beginning in March, despite high food prices. This trend is likely to broadly continue through the June to September dry season, given the positive effect of two consecutive above-average rainfall seasons on household income from livestock production. Good rangeland resource availability and lower return trekking distances have helped to maintain good livestock body conditions, which has in turn supported healthy livestock births and conceptions, boosted milk production, and improved livestock value on the market. Hamdait, Sudan, Nov 11 Sudan said Thursday it would shelter thousands of Ethiopians fleeing fighting, streaming across the border on foot, by bike and by boat, in a reopened 1980s camp for victims of a historic famine.. More than 11,000 Ethiopians had crossed into Sudan by Wednesday to escape the week-old conflict in the northern region of Tigray as the UN refugee agency warned … Infographic on famine and health jpg, 91… Although the terms of trade are favorable in pastoral areas, insecurity can periodically disrupt trading activities or impede market access with temporary impacts on household access to food and income sources. Poor households’ own-produced food stocks from the short rains harvest are expected to last through April in Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) counties and through July in areas that had better production. Birth and conception levels have generally returned to normal among small stock, but births among large stock remain below normal as they have only recently fully recovered. Beans, which are less moisture tolerant, performed poorly. According to FEWS NET’s estimates, total maize production in 2019 – including national long and short rains production – is three percent below average and eight percent below 2018. In contrast, beans production ranged from 25 to 38 percent below average on the county level. Most livestock have remained close to homesteads in the wet season grazing areas and have not migrated to typical dry season grazing areas. Humanitarian assistance is expected to continue across the country as vulnerable and food insecure households are supported by a combination of the national and county governments and humanitarian agencies. Agricultural labor demand is generally expected to be above normal from February through September as a result of increased area planted and heightened demand for weeding during above-average rainfall seasons, especially in high and medium potential areas. However, many poor households are still experiencing food gaps or engaging in crisis livelihoods coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. The information provided on this Web site is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government. Over 20,000 Ethiopians have fled as refugees into Sudan, with numbers continuing to grow, … The strong rainy season that took place between March and May 2020 resulted in massive flooding and landslides that affected 233,000 people and left 116,000 displaced. Total cowpea production was 68 percent above average and green grams production ranged from 15 to 33 percent above average on the county level, primarily attributed to an increase in area planted and county government subsidy programs for seeds, fertilizers, and chemicals. Interannual and emergency food assistance: In 2019, the World Food Programme (WFP) provided over 5,000 metric tons of food assistance and approximately 2.9 million USD in the form of cash transfers, reaching more than 600,000 beneficiaries across the country. Civil conflict in South Sudan has killed almost 400,000 people since 2013; 7.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. September 16, 2020 I arrived in Kenya and have been staying at the Challenge Farm in a town called Kitale. The recent short rains harvests provided own-produced food stocks, resulting in a good seasonal food availability in the month of February even in areas that harvested below-average maize stocks. Based on current above-normal vegetation, the above-average rainfall forecast, and anticipated desert locust control operations, rangeland resources are expected to remain broadly above normal throughout the scenario period. Despite high maize prices, household purchasing power as measured by the goat-to-maize terms of trade is broadly favorable due to high livestock prices, benefitting poor households with saleable livestock. During the March to May long rains season, household income from livestock production and household milk consumption is expected to range from normal to above-normal levels, based on above-normal rangeland resources, anticipated livestock births, high milk production, and above-average terms of trade. However, chronic food insecurity remains of concern, particularly in terms of dietary quality. Yussef is supported by his daughter, who grew up as a refugee in Sudan in the wake of the Ethiopia's 1984-5 famine. Health is a key component in the response to famine. Food availability has improved in early 2020 compared to late 2019, but the delayed unimodal maize harvest, below-average beans harvest, and tight regional supply are still driving high maize and bean prices. The long rains will be the second above-average rainfall season and, based on current above-normal soil saturation levels, there is an increased likelihood of standing water that creates habitats for RVF mosquito vectors. To date, only 35,000 hectares of infested areas have been sprayed, which represents a small proportion of affected areas. Many areas of concern have improved to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in Tana Riverine livelihood zone, where 55 percent of planted area was destroyed.[1]. The start of the dry season in January has permitted normal livelihoods activities to resume, which has enabled recovery to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes in most areas of concern. The years of famine are from 2020 to 2027. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. For example, Turkana (Turkana West) is expected to improve from ‘Critical’ to ‘Serious’. Pastoral area outcomes: Overall, significant gains in livestock productivity and value have driven an increase in livestock-related income and milk consumption to near-normal levels despite the slow pace of recovery of poor households’ livestock holdings. Although localized staple and cash crop losses from desert locust are expected, high agricultural labor demand for replanting and locust control is expected to provide income that partially offsets poor households’ own-produced crop losses. Livestock prices have remained strong since December, attributed to good livestock body conditions and lower livestock supply during a period of restocking. However, chronic food and non-food security factors are likely to sustain high but typical ‘Critical’ levels of acute malnutrition in Mandera, Turkana, and Wajir counties and in parts of Baringo (East Pokot sub-county) and Marsabit (Laisamis and North Horr sub-counties). The pandemic has exacerbated food insecurity across the globe, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a partner of UC Santa Barbara’s Climate Hazards Center. However, livestock price increases have outpaced maize price increases and the goat-to-maize terms of trade ranged from 15 to 55 percent above average. The refugee populations in both Dadaab and Kakuma refugee settlements, continue to receive food assistance rations reaching more than 25 percent of their population. Swarms of these migratory pests are destroying crops and vegetation in East Africa, resulting in loss of food and income for local families. The heavy rains, coupled with tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, created conducive conditions for the spread of desert locust in Kenya, but the negative impacts on crop and livestock production have not been large scale to date. The global hunger crisis caused by conflict – and now compounded by COVID-19 – is moving into a dangerous phase, the head of the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said on Thursday, stressing that without resources, a wave of famine could sweep the globe, overwhelming nations already weakened by years of instability. Conversion factors are: cattle = 0.7, sheep = 0.1, goats = 0.1, pigs = 0.2, chicken = 0.01. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, and irrigated areas of Mandera Riverine livelihood zone, where the loss of some agricultural labor income during the floods and relatively lower terms of trade is constraining households’ ability to meet their non-food needs. According to final estimates by the Kenya National Disaster Operations Centre, the floods affected approximately 472,000 people, displaced an estimated 24,000 people, and left 266 dead, 82 injured, and 17 missing. Veterinary department interventions have also proven instrumental to limiting livestock disease outbreaks and maintaining livestock health. Similarly, the use of consumption-based coping strategies as measured by rCSI broadly declined from October 2019 through February 2020, showing steady improvement. However, NDMA sentinel site data and field assessment data collected by the KFSSG in February suggest that there are some poor households who are still experiencing food gaps or engaged in crisis livelihoods coping strategies in most pastoral livelihood zones. For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report. New York, NY, December 3, 2020 — The International Rescue Committee is extremely concerned by the findings of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) that classified parts of Yemen as experiencing ‘famine like conditions’, with over 47,000 people projected to fall into this category in the next 6 months. Vanguard, Dec, 2, 2020. The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine … “Without immediate action, famine could be a reality in the coming months in parts of Burkina Faso, northeast Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen. The list of following conferences are including the following topics like business related conferences, engineering conferences, education, social. Outlook for 2020: South Sudan is currently experiencing a period of relative calm following a nationwide ceasefire in 2018 and a deal to create a yet-to-be formed unity government. Areas of greatest concern include Tana Riverine areas, where households are still recovering from the floods, and parts of Northeastern Pastoral livelihood zone, where insecurity will limit control efforts. Even without war, the large locust damage had already put many of those farmers on a path towards famine if no food aid would reach them in time. The U.N said the money will target the most vulnerable, especially women, girls and people with disabilities. In Marsabit, for example, retaliatory attacks in response to cattle rustling in parts of North Horr sub-county recently led to temporary closures of markets and primary schools and displaced about 150 households. Despite lower livestock holdings, milk production has rebounded from the drought, reflecting good birth levels and body conditions. Northwestern Pastoral, Northern Pastoral, Northeastern Pastoral, Southeastern Pastoral, Mandera Riverine, and Tana Riverine livelihood zones were the worst-affected areas, where damage to roads and bridges suspended market functioning and many households endured livestock losses or crop losses. Prices are most likely to peak at around KES 50 between April and August. As a result, livestock migration is broadly expected to occur at below-normal levels during the June to September dry season. Well-coordinated surveillance and control of locusts involving proper budgeting and use of the allocated funds set aside for the control of the locusts will result in minimal effects on crops and forage resources. Cash transfers, supplementary feeding and in-kind distribution of food commodities by WFP to over 800,000 beneficiaries will likely continue throughout the scenario period. Challenge Farm is 10 acre farm, home, church and school. The locust invasion is the worst infestation in Kenya for 70 years and the worst in Somalia and Ethiopia for 25 years. Somalia has declared a national emergency in response to the crisis. Sporadic cattle raids also affected market operations at the border of West Pokot and Turkana at Kainuk, but the situation has since returned to normal. (AP Photo, File), Connect with the definitive source for global and local news. Marginal agricultural area outcomes: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely throughout the scenario period. In Wajir, terror-related attacks in parts of Wajir East and Tarbaj sub counties in late January disrupted market supply flows and household market access. After the 2018/19 drought, exceptionally above-average rainfall during Kenya’s 2019 short rains season disrupted livelihoods activities and slowed the pace of recovery in many areas, but food security conditions are now gradually improving. Q&A: Malnutrition and emergencies 2. In addition, relatively colder temperatures and a shift in seasonal wind patterns are most likely to mitigate the spread of desert locust to western high potential areas, while forecast above-average rainfall is expected to help offset pasture losses during the long rains season. August 10, 2020. However, field assessment information collected by the KFSSG in February shows that poor households’ livestock holdings in terms of tropical livestock units (TLUs)[1] remain below the 10-year average due to losses during recent droughts and floods as well as distressed sales. Based on field information and supported by the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), pasture and browse conditions are good and above-normal. In northeastern Kenya, clashes between Somali and Jubaland defense forces affected Mandera town in late February, suspending livelihood activities and market operations. Current food security outcomes, February 2020, Consecutive above-average rainy seasons drive improved food security outcomes, COVID-19 restrictions and forecast below-average Oct-Dec rains to heighten acute food insecurity. In late February, NDVI data showed vegetation greenness was upwards of 140 percent of normal across most of the country and 105-120 percent of normal in western and northeastern Kenya (Figure 3). NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations humanitarian office is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene.”. However, crop losses from desert locust may lead to declines in agricultural labor demand during the weeding stages and during the July/August bimodal harvest in localized areas. Daily net production levels are 2-7 liters per household per day compared to 2-6 liters normally. Improved control will likely prevent a resurgence of the pests from mid-March and minimize crop or rangeland resource losses, thereby enabling more households to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1). [1] Tropical Livestock Units are livestock numbers converted to a common unit. As of late February, desert locusts had spread to 21 counties in Kenya (Figure 2). In rain-fed marginal agricultural areas, specifically, short rains production of maize, cowpea, and green grams generally performed better than previously expected. In February, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) observed that all livestock species exhibit good body conditions due to good pasture, browse, forage, and water availability. To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. Based on the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) estimates, post-harvest losses are estimated to be upwards of 10 percent since the heavy, sustained, heavy rainfall constrained maize drying and storage causing losses from rotting. A return to a world where famines are commonplace would be “obscene in a world where there is more than enough food for everyone,” U.N. humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock said. However, the outbreaks are anticipated to be less severe than those of 2019 due to heightened awareness, surveillance systems, and improved control measures both at the national and county level. Despite widespread flooding, no livestock disease outbreaks have been reported since October except in Marsabit, where FMD, CCPP, and PPR cases have resulted in a mortality rate of around six percent of small stock. The United Nations humanitarian office said Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 it is releasing $100 million in emergency funding to seven countries at risk of famine in Africa and the Middle East amid conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the humanitarian chief says returning to a world where famines are common would be “obscene.” (AP Photo, File) Below-average forage and water availability would be expected from June onward, while farming households would suffer crop losses, due to the interaction of poor rainfall with desert locusts even in the presence of aerial and ground control operations. By July, the near-average long rains harvest, which comprises only about 30-40 percent of the total annual harvest in these areas, is expected to provide an additional food source. In Samburu, recurring communal and resource-based conflicts also periodically limit access to forage and water for livestock and impede market operations in Baragoi. According to the convergence of NOAA, ECMWF, and GHACOF forecasts, probabilistic models indicate the March to May bimodal long rains season and February to August unimodal long rains season are most likely to be above average. Long before it’s establishment Challenge Farm was in the heart of of God. The easing of rainfall during the January to February dry season permitted the completion of both the delayed, unimodal long rains harvest in high and medium agricultural areas in western Kenya and the bimodal short rains harvest in marginal agricultural areas in central and southeastern Kenya. Increased security could lead to re-opening of the border, which would likely improve Kenya-Somalia cross-border trade by increasing both the demand and supply of livestock and staple foods, respectively. Markets and trade: The delayed unimodal maize harvest, below-average beans harvest, and tight regional supply are driving high maize and bean prices in most urban and rural key reference markets, which is affecting food access among poor households who lost crops due to the floods, have few saleable animals, and primarily rely on labor income. Nonetheless, localized insecurity, cattle rustling, and sporadic intercommunal conflict periodically affects local livelihoods and market access. The number of people discovered across the world to be hungry is roughly above 800 million.. However, below-average area planted and crop losses from flooding, leaching, and water logging, as well as minimal losses from Fall Army Worm and desert locust infestations, resulted in below-average maize production in Kilifi, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), where production ranged from 10 to 18 percent below average on the county level. [1] FEWS NET is a member of the KFSSG. Reduced insecurity would facilitate the resumption of normal livelihood activities, trade flows, and market functioning. 1. WFP further provided in-kind food assistance to approximately 260,000 beneficiaries as well as supplementary feeding to health centers for approximately 57,319 beneficiaries in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River. As a result, return trekking distances for livestock from grazing areas to water sources were considerably below average in February, ranging from 2 to 8 kilometers (km) compared to 4-15 km normally. Well-coordinated surveillance and control of desert locusts. In addition, relatively low levels of resource-based conflict have permitted increased freedom of movement to rangeland and markets compared to recent dry seasons, while household time and money spent on accessing water is atypically low. The organization estimates that, across the 46 countries it monitors, 113 million people will need humanitarian food aid in 2020. Based on recent funds committed by donor governments and the Kenyan government, aerial and ground control measures are expected to continue to mitigate the impact of desert locust on crop and livestock production, though efforts will likely be limited by insecurity in areas along the Kenya-Somali border. The number of hungry people in Asia is roughly 515 million. Similarly, the wholesale price of dry beans ranged from 18 to 40 percent above the five-year average in urban reference markets and from near average to 14 percent above average in rural markets. | February 26, 2020, 4:54 PM Locusts take flight from ground vegetation as young girls run toward their cattle at Larisoro village near Archers Post, Kenya, on … In pastoral areas, rangeland resource availability is historically above normal and livestock migration is atypically low. However, given the early depletion of own-produced food stocks, poor households in Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, Makueni, and Tharaka counties will likely continue to face difficulty meeting non-food needs given increasing dependence on higher priced staple food purchases from May until the short rains harvest in July. In marginal agricultural areas, net short rains production is approximately 26 percent above the long-term average. Based on data collected during the 2019 short rains assessment, the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) estimates that 1.3 million Kenyans are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, a decline of nearly 50 percent compared to the preceding long rains season. In February, the cost of water is near normal or up to 50 percent below normal, ranging from KES 2 to 5 for a 20-liter jerrican across most pastoral areas and KES 10 in Turkana. A statement overnight said $80 million of the money will go to Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen. In addition to improved productivity, adequate availability of rangeland resources has led to generally lower levels of resource-based conflict in pastoral areas. Many recount similar stories of suffering. Improved milk consumption and the above-average goat-to-maize terms of trade, coupled with other income sources such as seasonal charcoal and firewood sales and interannual safety nets, is driving a relative improvement in dietary quality and quantity among most poor households. The lowest acute malnutrition prevalence was observed in Saku and Moyale sub counties in Marsabit at ‘Alert’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) levels. Guidance for health workers pdf, 248kb 3. The 2019 floods caused livestock losses in some areas, but livestock production is now largely benefitting from enhanced rangeland conditions as a result of the above-average rains. 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